During The X Factor in 2011, betting.betfair tipster Jack Houghton turned a starting bank of ?1,000 into a whopping ?1,900. Two years previously he returned a 17-point profit to anyone following his recommended bets. Last year, though, unlikely victors Little Mix inflicted a gaping wound on the betting bank of the Sage of the X-Factor (he makes us call him that). Will he return to winning ways this year?
Last week delivered more profits. Perming Union J, District3 and Rylan Clark in the Bottom Two Combo market brought a small return, and putting up Gary Barlow as a lay-to-back in the 1st Mentor Eliminated market has already secured a potential green book. First to housekeeping: back him back at 2.407/5 to guarantee a no-thrills trading profit. I think his sole remaining act, Christopher Maloney, may still have a couple of weeks left in the competition, but he is undoubtedly increasingly vulnerable, especially as Christopher continues to receive negative press. So let's take the profit and move on.
A theory was peddled on last week's show that suggests that Union J might now be more successful, as those who were voting for District3 will shift their allegiances to the only remaining boy band. I'm not so sure. Even if there is such a thing as the, as Eliot Pollak calls it, "pre-pubescent" block vote - and as I've written previously, it's a little insulting to suggest there is - then who's to say that those who previously supported District3 will so readily switch allegiances? Surely they'd be more likely to turn against the act that ultimately banished their beloved from their Saturday-night television-screens?
And anyway, if Saturday night told us anything, it was that, if you like your music to come courtesy of ridiculously good-looking and articulate teenage boys with depressingly vibrant hair follicles, then your present needs are more than catered for by the oh-so-adorable One Direction, meaning you are unlikely to start investing in a replacement any time soon.
For these reasons - even though I was impressed by their version of Fix You last week - I was going to put Union J forward for elimination on Sunday, at the massive odds of 6.4011/2. They are still one of only two remaining acts to have been in the Bottom Two and, unless the boy-band-split-vote theory is right, there is no reason to think they won't be vulnerable again this weekend.
However, the risk is that, should they be in a sing-off with either Rylan Clark or Christopher - and I can see why Mike Norman is making a case for one of those two going - then it is likely the judges will save Union J. With this in mind, I'll accept shorter odds and punt on Union J being in the Bottom Two again, at 2.506/4.
The story of the Winner market over the course of the show has been the slow drift in price of one-time odds-on shot Ella Henderson. Whilst everyone else seemed to be predicting certain victory for the 16-year-old in the early weeks, I foretold the price drift (I am to the Betfair markets what groundhogs are to the weather - which is why, despite all my protestations, the betting.betfair editors insist on calling me The Sage). But even my prognostications did not foresee her ever being available at odds as big as 3.002/1.
Similarly, whilst Jahmene was clearly value when he was recommended here at 8.6015/2, I can't quite believe that he is now favourite. Jahmene is obviously popular - he's certainly very likeable - but I see him as the least likely of the three front-runners to actually win the series.
Although talented, his incessant ad-libbing - much of which is off-key - is becoming wearing, and, in recent weeks, despite an ever ebullient and supportive judging panel, Ella and James have consistently outperformed him. Coupled with news this week that Jahmene has refused to sing songs that offend his principles, it's now time to shift the balance of the portfolio away from him: his morality is admirable; preaching it will make him less popular.
On this basis, I'm going in again on Ella at 3.002/1 and James at 4.804/1. It makes me incredibly vulnerable to a surprise win by Christopher or Rylan, and means a Jahmene victory brings in less profit, but those small risks seem worth the potential reward.
Recommendations:
1 ?-point back Gary Barlow at 2.407/5 in 1st Mentor Eliminated market.
3-point back Union J at 2.506/4 in Bottom Two market.
4-point back Ella Henderson at 3.002/1 in Winner market.
2-point back James Arthur at 4.804/1 in Winner market.
Previous recommendations:
2-point lay Gary Barlow at 1.664/6 in 1st Mentor Eliminated market - OPEN.
8-point lay Jahmene Douglas at 3.8014/5 in Winner market - OPEN.
9-point back Ella Henderson at 2.206/5 in Winner market - OPEN.
6-point back Jahmene Douglas at 8.6015/2 in Winner market - OPEN.
1-point back James Arthur at 11.5n/a in Winner market - OPEN.
1-point back James Arthur at 10.09/1 in Winner market - OPEN.
1-point back Union J at 16.5n/a in Winner market - OPEN.
1-point back Groups at 6.806/1 in Winning Category market - OPEN.
1-point back District3 / Union J at 4.804/1 in Bottom Two Combo market - WON.
1-point back Christopher Maloney at 1.804/5 in Over 28s market - WON.
1-point back District3 at 2.9015/8 in Bottom Two market - WON.
1-point back MK1 at 2.707/4 in Bottom Two market - WON.
1-point back Jade Ellis at 8.207/1 in 4th Elimination market - WON.
1-point back Rylan Clark / District3 at 4.407/2 in Bottom Two Combo market - LOST.
1-point back Rylan Clark / Union J at 8.207/1 in Bottom Two Combo market - LOST.
1-point back Christopher Maloney at 2.9015/8 in Bottom Two market - LOST.
1-point back Lucy Spraggan at 5.509/2 in Bottom Two market - LOST.
1-point back District3 at 2.809/5 in Bottom Two market - LOST.
1-point back Lucy Spraggan at 12.011/1 in 4th Elimination market - LOST.
1-point lay Christopher Maloney at 1.412/5 in Wildcard winner market - LOST.
1-point back Times Red at 16.015/1 in Wildcard winner market - LOST.
1-point back Kye Sones at 14.013/1 in Winner market - LOST.
1-point back Kye Sones at 11.010/1 in Winner market - LOST.
Profit/Loss so far: +5.99pts
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